On the Bubble 2012: A Bunch Of Numbers

Tim Kelley shreds Slalom.  Photo by UVM athletics, snagged from Burlington Free Press.

Late March is an interesting time of year for ski racers.  Skiers who have already met their goals and had some good scores start wanting even more.  Those who have done neither are starting to think about doing the Desperation Tour in Scandanavia, just trying to maintain start position for next season.

Depending on what your FIS point goals are, there may only be a couple of races left for you.  If you're looking for scores in the 30's or higher, you've got some opportunities left.  If your goals are below 20, you're probably feeling the pinch more acutely than most.  You've got Nor-Am Finals, US Nationals, Canadian Nationals, and that's about it.  Can the penalty at Mission Ridge be 9?  Yes, but that usually means it's a blowout, so the winner scores but nobody else does.

There are always a bunch of people who are close at this time of year, they're just looking for that one race to put them over the top.  Here's a rundown of sorts, although the list is surely incomplete.

Tim Kelley is close.  Because he's an ancient old man (26-years old) he has to make the B-Team.  That means he has to have 6.00 points or less in one event to make criteria.  He's demonstrated lately that his sublime lurpy skiing style is right on form, but unfortunately it will be impossible for him to make criteria at this point.  There is only one Nor-Am SL left, which means only one opportunity to score a 6.  There is a National Championship SL, but the minimum penalty there is 8.  So if Tim wins a Nor-Am SL and scores a 6, then wins US Nationals and scores an 8, he'll still be praying to the Gods of Discretion.  Might be kind of a nice feeling, though, don't you think?  Maybe it's a relief to know that you have no shot at criteria.  In Tim's position, all he can do is go to the big races (not always easy since he's in college) and ski his best.  After all, discretionary spots seem to be as much about technical ability as they are about point profile.

One man who should certainly be back on his nation's ski team is Trevor Philp, if he so chooses.  Trevor chose to leave the Canadian Ski Team at the end of last year, bound for greener pastures at the University of Denver.  So it must have been quite a surprise for everyone (this really should have gone in the previous post...) when he started getting on the podium in Nor-Ams this season.  First he scored a 13.  Then a 7.  Then a 9.  Then he won the weirdest race ever and scored a 6.  Now what?  Oh, right, now he's the second placed North American in the Nor-Am SL standings.  Can you say "World Cup spot"?  Take a look at the man's FIS profile.  16 of his best 20 scores have come this season, his freshman year and his first year off the Ski Team.  Aside from first year J2's, there aren't a lot of people who have ever achieved that kind of single-season scoring percentage.

Some other skiers to watch as the end-of-season unfolds:

1. Abby Ghent.  Technically not on the bubble at the moment.  With a 99th world rank in SG, and top-200's in DH and GS, she's qualified for the C-Team on criteria.  She needs one top-100, and one top-200 though, so depending on how much things change with the next point lists, she could be in danger of losing that top-100 SG.  She does have the opportunity to lower her SG points even more, so let's hope she can stay on the good side of the razor's edge.
2. Nick Cohee.  Has a 10 and a 15 in SL.  On form lately, so if he can match the 10, he'd have 15 GS points and 10 SL points.  That doesn't meet criteria (he's an '88), but it would be pretty tough to justify not having him on the team.
3. Rob Cone.  Was .01 seconds from making C-Team criteria at World Juniors.  If he can score a low 20 or better in GS, he should qualify for the C-Team.  At the ripe old age of 20, that's where he needs to be.
4. Julia Ford.  Julia is winning the Nor-Am DH title at the moment.  Assuming the cancelled races from Le Massif mark the true end of the Nor-Am season, that means she has a World Cup spot for next year.  However, that doesn't guarantee her a spot on the National Team, as Chris Frank, Charles Christianson, and Warner Nickerson will attest.  If she can find a 10-point SG penalty somewhere between now and May, she has the opportunity to get the top-60 SG rank she'll need to make C-Team criteria.  Look for her to swing hard at US Nationals, especially if Vonn shows up.
5. Ronnie Berlack.  As a '94, he's half way to D-Team criteria with 35 SG points.  If he can match his best GS score (a 35), he'll make D-Team criteria outright. 
6. Bronson Wright.  Needs a top-220 world rank in SG, he's currently ranked 233rd.  A good SG score could put him over the top.  He also needs two mid-20's GS scores to get his 3-event average down, but it's possible.
7. Paula Moltzan.  Paula's best chance should be in Slalom.  If she can score in the mid-teens, she'll make D-Team criteria.
8. Matt Strand.  Matt is a '93 with 14 Slalom points.  That means he's halfway to meeting criteria for the C-Team or the D-Team.  With SL points like that, the real question is what squad he'll end up with on discretion if he can't get his GS points down by the end of the year.
9. Kieffer Christianson.  It will be interesting to see what happens with Kieffer.  His point profile is more well-rounded than most, but he doesn't yet have world rankings that put him inline with Ski Team criteria.  If he lowers both his GS and SL points by 4, he should make C-Team criteria.
10. Jared Goldberg.  Jared is ranked 116 in SG.  If he can drop his points by 1.5 in that event, he makes the C-Team.
11. Bobby Farrell.  Currently has 18 SL points and 22 GS points.  If he can get those down to 13 and 21 respectively, he makes the C-Team.

And a side note about  Canada's UVM's  Elli Terwiel, who just snagged herself a World Cup spot by winning the women's Nor-Am SL title.  She did not win any Nor-Ams this year, but she was only out of the top-10 once in SL.  Good skiing gets results.  Surprise!


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